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= Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories =
'''EB-1 Worldwide ''' (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines and Vietnam) remains current in July and should remain so through the end of this fiscal year.
In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August 15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China adjustment of status (AOS) cases pending at USCIS. EB-1 India again advances significantly, moving forward eleven months from June 8, 2016 to May 8, 2017.
This rapid advancement is made possible by the infusion of otherwise unused numbers falling up from EB-5 and the lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand. Charlie is consulting with USCIS regarding their processing capacity and to determine how much of the outstanding demand is close to completion in order to understand what can realistically be approved before the end of the fiscal year.
'''EB-2 Worldwide ''' (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current in July and should do so through FY2020. EB-2 China advancement slows to one week, moving modestly from November 1, 2015 to November 8, 2015. In contrast, EB-2 India advances more rapidly by three weeks, from June 12, 2009 to July 8, 2009. As with EB-1 China and EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in these categories and relatively low rest of world demand.
'''EB-2 China and EB-2 India ''' will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.
'''EB-3 Worldwide ''' (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) and EB-3 Worldwide Other Workers (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) which advanced more than ten months in June, advances at a significant yet slower five month pace in July 2020 from November 8, 2017 to April 15, 2018.
Similar to EB-1 India, there is a large amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam), making it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year. However, as also noted above, this category is much closer to reaching its annual limit than the other categories.
'''EB-3 China ''' advancement slows to one week in July from June 15, 2016 to June 22, 2016. EB-3 China Other Workers starts to advance again in July by one week from July 15, 2008 to July 22, 2008. As EB-2 China and EB-3 China both advance by one week in July, the spread between them remains the same, with EB-3 Chinas final action date holding at 7.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. EB-3 India and EB-3 India Other Workers both advance two months in July from April 1, 2009 to June 1, 2009.
'''EB-4 Worldwide ''' (including China, India, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current in July. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras advances 1.5 months from December 15, 2016 to February 1, 2017 and is likely to hold at this date through the remainder of the fiscal year. EB-4 Mexico advances one week, from June 8, 2018 to June 15, 2018. Members should continue to watch EB-4 Mexico for potential movement. It is too early to predict what will happen in the remaining months of FY2020.
'''EB-5 India ''' (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) becomes current in July and will remain so through FY2020. EB-5 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico and Philippines), Regional and Non-Regional Centers, remains current in July and will remain so through this fiscal year as well. EB-5 China (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances one week in July from July 15, 2015 to July 22, 2015. EB-5 Vietnam (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances three weeks in July from April 22, 2017 to May 15, 2017.
= Visa Bulletin Predictions Q & A =
'''QUESTION: In last months Check In, Charlie said that *it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020*. If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?'''
ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.
Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
'''QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?'''
ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.