6/20奥本语录

General Observations:

As noted last month, while Charlie is required to work from home and lacks

access to certain government databases, he is unable to provide projections

beyond what is included herein.

As might be expected, immigrant visa (IV) usage was lower than normal in

April 2020 due to the closure of U.S. consulates and USCIS offices.

Notwithstanding these closures, Charlie was pleased to see that

employment-based number usage was respectable in April given the current

situation, and that there has already been decent sized number usage thus

far in May.

Movements in the final action dates and the redistribution of otherwise

unused visa numbers have traditionally been influenced by the demand for

visa numbers in the various categories relative to the annual visa limits.

During the COVID-19 global pandemic, the lack of government capacity to

process applications is proving to be a significant factor in how visa

numbers can be allocated in an effort to maximize fiscal year number usage

consistent with the INA.

Charlie must now take into account the agencies’ capacity to process

applications, in addition to supply and demand, in determining final action

date movements.

Lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand, and the existence of a

significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 India makes it possible

for more rapid advancement for EB-1 India.

In contrast, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Charlie warned of high levels of

EB-2 Worldwide demand, which he expected would result in the imposition of a

final action date in that category in the summer.

Although that is no longer likely, the existence of significant worldwide

demand may make it far less likely that the pre-adjudicated demand in EB-2

India can be acted upon.

Where possible, Charlie is doing his best to work with pre-adjudicated

demand to facilitate number usage and is heartened by USCIS’s efforts to

approve employment-based adjustment of status applications.

Nevertheless, he thinks it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will

be reached in FY2020. He noted that he will have a better sense of whether

the limit will be reached after he analyzes the June 2020 data.

Employment-based Preference Categories

EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico

Philippines and Vietnam) which became current in May 2020 remains current in

June. Given the lack of EB-1 demand and the likelihood of otherwise unused

numbers becoming available from the EB-5 category, this category is expected

to remain current through the end of FY2020.

In June the final action date for EB-1 China will advance one month from

July 15, 2017, to August 15, 2017. EB-1 India will take a significant leap

of over ten months from August 1, 2015, to June 8, 2016.

EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico

Philippines and Vietnam) remains current in June, with EB-2 China again

advancing at the pace of one month from October 1, 2015, to November 1, 2015

. EB-2 India advances 10 days in June from June 2, 2009, to June 12, 2009.